Another reason the violence is down in Iraq?
First of all, Middle East experts pretty much agree that whether we leave in five months or five years, the same thing is going to happen. The different Iraqi tribes/sects will mix it up and fight until they sort it all out. Nothing will stop this.
So--The reason the violence is down could be because they're thinking about how to best position themselves for when the Americans leave. They could be doing their own planning, and why should they waste their resources fighting Americans when their REAL battle comes AFTER we leave?
They'd want to keep up some level of aggression against us... but they wouldn't want to make it too great. Because they'd want us to leave with some hope that things will turn out OK when we do. You know, so things won't look too bad, so we won't feel obliged to stick around to prevent any ensuing chaos.
So if they want Americans to leave, and they do in pretty much all cases, they dial down the violence.
And they bide their time. They wait until the Americans leave, and then they go hell-bent-for-leather fighting for power in the new world of post-American Iraq.
This could explain why they're not taking advantage of the lull........
"Iraqis Wasting An Opportunity, U.S. Officers Say"
From washingtonpost.com: "Senior military commanders here now portray the intransigence of Iraq's Shiite-dominated government as the key threat facing the U.S. effort in Iraq, rather than al-Qaeda terrorists, Sunni insurgents or Iranian-backed militias.
In more than a dozen interviews, U.S. military officials expressed growing concern over the Iraqi government's failure to capitalize on sharp declines in attacks against U.S. troops and Iraqi civilians. A window of opportunity has opened for the government to reach out to its former foes, said Army Lt. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno, the commander of day-to-day U.S. military operations in Iraq, but "it's unclear how long that window is going to be open."
....All the U.S. military officials interviewed said their most pressing concern is that Sunnis will sour if the Iraqi government doesn't begin to reciprocate their peace overtures. "The Sunnis have shown great patience," said Campbell. "You don't want the Sunnis that are working with you . . . to go back to the dark side." The Army officer who requested anonymity said that if the Iraqi government doesn't reach out, then for former Sunni insurgents "it's game on — they're back to attacking again."[..]
The 'heroic efforts' of our 'fearless leader' are NOT going to resolve the 1300 years of disputes between the Shias and Sunnis et al.
Imagine back in the 1800's in our country... imagine the US Calvary trying to get the warring Apaches, Sioux and Comanches to settle down to co-rule and share the same territory. Sure, the Indians came around after about a hundred years and we'd killed almost two-thirds of them. Is that what we're going to do in Iraq? Is that how long we're going to be there?
The lesson of Iraq should be: You CANNOT win out over a committed popular home grown insurgency even with massive military strength and superiority.
Remember how the Russians and their tanks left Afghanistan with their tails between their legs, after years of fighting fierce mountain tribesmen, ruining the Russian economy in the process?
Remember our Revolutionary War and how the Brits could not win against the rebellious rag-tag American insurgency who fought with pitchforks?
This is also the lesson that Israel should've learned by now about Palestine.
