The new polls are showing the race either tied or with a narrow McCain lead:
The new ABC/Washington Post poll gives McCain a 49%-47% lead among likely voters, with a ±4% margin of error. Two weeks ago, just before the Democratic Convention began, Obama had a 49%-45% lead with likely voters.
The new CBS poll has McCain up 46%-44%, with a ±4% margin of error. Two and a half weeks ago, Obama had a 45%-42% lead.
The new Hotline/Diageo poll has the race tied at 44% each. Two weeks ago, Obama had a 44%-40% lead.
Lest we forget -- McCain went out of his way to trample on the Democratic convention, the success of Obama's speech and distract everyone the morning after when he dropped his Palin bomb to dilute whatever bounce Obama got.
Okay, convention bounces are not permanent things...McCain's is the result of going second, bathing in the spotlight and getting positive coverage for a whole week.
There are still eight weeks to go. Besides, if you get a big convention bounce based on lies and distortions...maybe the harder you'll fall.
So, for now, his Palin bump has pulled him ahead in the polls. All those dispirited R's who were going to stay home on election day are fired up now.
Now, if only Obama had picked Hillary as VP like I wanted him to, he could've robbed McCain of Palin's thunder...and he would've cemented Hillary's base of women voters.
Of course, there is no evidence that centrist women are now flocking to Palin. Working class and Democratic women still support Obama. Most Republican women would never vote for a Democrat anyway...millions, in fact.
What the Democrats are losing may be enthusiasm among Democratic women, but they are not losing women. They need to put Hillary out there. And Bill is waiting in the wings...
It's conservative and moderate men who love Palin. Conservatives have long pined for a pro-life Maggie Thatcher type, and now they think they found one.
No matter who wins, I think in the end, it's these two decisions -- Hillary and Palin -- that will be analyzed for years to come.